Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

Real-time sea-level gauge observations and operational oceanography.

The contribution of tide-gauge data, which provide a unique monitoring of sea-level variability along the coasts of the world ocean, to operational oceanography is discussed in this paper. Two distinct applications that both demonstrate tide-gauge data utility when delivered in real-time are illustrated. The first case details basin-scale operational model validation of the French Mercator oper...

Comparing density forecasts of aggregated time series via bootstrap

When forecasting aggregated time series, several options are available. For example, the multivariate series or the individual time series might be predicted and then aggregated, or one may choose to forecast the aggregated series directly. While in theory an optimal disaggregated forecast will generally be superior (or at least not inferior) to forecasts based on aggregated information, this i...

Robustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-correction Systems

Cointegration analysis has led to equilibrium-correction econometric systems being ubiquitous. But in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, as forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to data. We explain the...

Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

High Level Operational Concept

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